Who Will Win? Analyzing the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds and Top Contenders
As I sit here analyzing the 2018 NBA Rookie of the Year race, I can't help but draw parallels to the Magnolia Hotshots' impressive 80-point performance where players like Jio Jalalon (though he scored just 7 points in that particular game) demonstrated how role players can significantly impact outcomes. The ROY competition reminds me of that balanced team effort - while we have clear stars like Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell dominating conversations, there are several dark horses who could surprise everyone, much like how Paul Lee's zero-point game against Magnolia doesn't define his overall value to his team.
Looking at the preseason odds, Ben Simmons opened as the heavy favorite at +150, which made perfect sense given his unique combination of size and playmaking ability at 6'10". Having watched his limited appearances the previous season, I was convinced he'd be special, though I'll admit I underestimated how quickly he'd adapt. Donovan Mitchell started at +1800, which in retrospect seems absolutely criminal - I remember telling colleagues that those odds represented the steal of the century. The Jazz guard had shown flashes of brilliance in summer league that many analysts, myself included, initially dismissed as preseason hype.
What fascinates me about this rookie class is how it defied conventional wisdom about player development timelines. Typically, rookies struggle with efficiency, but here we had Simmons posting historic triple-doubles and Mitchell carrying offensive loads normally reserved for veterans. I've followed the NBA for over fifteen years, and I can count on one hand the number of rookies who've impacted winning the way these two did immediately. Jayson Tatum at +2000 early on represented another fascinating case - his polished offensive game translated faster than even the Celtics organization anticipated, though his numbers were slightly inflated by having to step up after Gordon Hayward's tragic injury.
The statistical comparison between the top contenders became increasingly compelling as the season progressed. Simmons finished with 15.8 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game - numbers that put him in company with Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson. Mitchell's scoring explosion of 20.5 points per game while leading Utah to playoff contention demonstrated a clutch gene I haven't seen from many first-year players. Personally, I leaned toward Mitchell for much of the season because of how he shouldered the offensive burden, though Simmons' all-around game made this arguably the toughest ROY decision in recent memory.
What many casual fans might not appreciate is how the voting breakdown reflected different philosophical approaches to the award. The 101-first place votes for Simmons versus 11 for Mitchell tells you everything about how voters weighed all-around consistency versus explosive scoring and narrative. I found myself torn until the final week of the season - my analytical side recognized Simmons' historical statistical profile, but my basketball heart kept returning to Mitchell's fourth-quarter heroics and how he transformed Utah's offense after losing Gordon Hayward.
The dark horse candidates added intriguing layers to the conversation. Kyle Kuzma at +5000 preseason odds outperformed expectations dramatically, averaging 16.1 points and shooting 36% from three. Dennis Smith Jr.'s athletic highlights made him a fan favorite, though his efficiency numbers left something to be desired. Lauri Markkanen's 15.2 points and 7.5 rebounds for Chicago demonstrated the international pipeline's continued strength. Having visited multiple training facilities during this season, I can confirm the buzz around these players was palpable among development staffs across the league.
In retrospect, the 2018 ROY race represents a fascinating case study in how we evaluate rookie success. The "redshirt" season Simmons had due to injury gave him an unconventional development path, while Mitchell's immediate impact as the 13th pick challenges draft evaluation methodologies. As someone who's consulted with NBA front offices, I can tell you this class forced many organizations to reconsider how they project player development curves. The traditional one-and-done versus multi-year college player debate also got interesting new data points through these performances.
Ultimately, Simmons winning the award felt right from a historical statistical perspective, though I'll always wonder how the narrative might have shifted if Mitchell's incredible playoff performances had occurred before voting. The 76ers' improvement from 28 to 52 wins certainly bolstered Simmons' case, while Mitchell leading Utah to 48 wins after Hayward's departure created one of the most compelling arguments for a non-top pick winning the award. What stays with me most is how both players immediately established themselves as franchise cornerstones - something that can't always be said about even the most celebrated rookies.
The legacy of this ROY race continues to influence how we evaluate incoming classes today. The success of both top contenders set a new benchmark for immediate impact, and the depth of quality players from this draft has already reshaped multiple franchises. As we look toward future rookie classes, the 2018 group serves as a reminder that preseason odds tell only part of the story, and that sometimes the most compelling narratives emerge from places nobody expected - much like how role players can unexpectedly dominate a game, similar to how Ian Sangalang's 9 points for Magnolia might not headline the box score but contributed meaningfully to the overall victory.
